BC copper 2509 contract fluctuated downward then rebounded, macro concerns led to narrowing of SHFE copper price spread [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract opened at 69,860 yuan/mt and closed lower. During the night session, BC copper opened and moved lower, fluctuating downward after peaking at 69,870 yuan/mt as bears entered the market. After the day session opened, the center of copper prices gradually fell to an intraday low of 69,570 yuan/mt. Near the end of the session, the center of copper prices gradually rebounded, closing at 69,720 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.36%. Open interest reached 4,022 lots, up 73 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reached 2,826 lots, up 1,195 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro side, the US added 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products to the tariff list, and concerns over Treasury Secretary Besent's upcoming interview as a Fed Chairman candidate have raised market worries, jointly pressuring copper prices. The minutes of the US Fed's monetary policy meeting will be released at 2:00 AM tonight, revealing internal disagreements on interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, on the supply side, LME inventory increased by 1,200 mt to 156,350 mt. Domestic supplies were replenished during the day, with overall supply rising, and it is expected that domestic supplies will continue to be replenished tomorrow. On the demand side, the lower center of copper prices has boosted downstream purchasing sentiment.

The SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/mt. If the BC copper 2509 contract is 69,720 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 78,784 yuan/mt, resulting in a price difference of -144 between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper 2509 contract, maintaining an inverted spread that narrowed slightly from the previous day.